Midterm Election Results and Possible Effects

After checking the election results, and counting House votes on HR4437 (the very anti-immigration bill), I don’t think this election will get us any closer to where we’d like to be.

To catch you up, in case you are unaware, the most recent Congress passed two very different immigration bills that could not be reconciled. The Senate passed a bill (S. 2611) that would provide a guest worker program–something I’m absolutely opposed to–a path to citizenship for many immigrants here illegally, and most importantly, a five-fold increase in the number of visas offered each year. (Even with the guest worker provision, I think S. 2611 would be a huge step in the right direction.) The House, on the other hand, passed a bill, 4437, that would criminalize illegal immigration and further militarized the border.

The press has been reporting that with the Democrats in control of both chambers of Congress, and a sympathetic President Bush, the Senate plan for immigration reform might ironically pass. I had some initial, gut-reaction reservations because many of the new Democratic representatives were being described as conservative. Then I did the roll-call vote count. My gut-reaction is now full-on cynacism. I don’t believe the House will adopt the Senate bill, and here’s why.

There were changes in 47 House seats, with a possibility of 9 more that are currently undecided, (though 6 of these are leaning toward the incumbent). Of these 47 changes, 34 voted in favor of HR 4437, 10 voted against it, and 3 did not vote. But several of the changes were due to term limits or for some other reason did not change parties. Of these changes, only 22 were Republican controlled seats that voted for the bill that changed to Democratic. HR 4437 initially passed by a count of 239 to 182, so even if all of these Democrats are alligned against the dehumanizing bill, that still leaves a majority of the House that would seem to favor it. If this bill were to come up in the 110th Congress, I think it would still pass, though by a slimmer margin (217 to 204).

Of course, the issue is much more complex than this, but I use it to illustrate that the Democratic victory doesn’t necessarily mean that we are closer to increased immigration levels or citizenship. Nor do we seem to be any further from the idea of a border fence and criminalizing undocumented immigration.

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